Profiling Another Blog

Analysis of another blog in my field, for inspiration and direction: FiveThirtyEight.com
Assignment for Aug. 31

In a political world increasingly defined by polling numbers and electoral struggles, FiveThirtyEight.com provides a statistics-based blog on goings-on both inside and outside the Beltway. Nate Silver, who started as a career baseball statistician, now uses his powers to predict (with great accuracy) the results of elections, check the accuracy of polling and other meters of public opinion, and just generally break down every political question to numbers and regression models to take a stab of measuring the unmeasurable.

FiveThirtyEight rose to prominance during the 2008 election and the year running up to it, rising from a relatively unknown corner of the net to the 57th-ranked blog on technorati.com, an amazingly quick ascent. Between calculating the Democratic primary results and eventually nailing the popular vote spread (52.4%-46.3% predicted, compared to 52.3-46.2 actual), Silver has earned his credibility with consistent results and an eye for effectively weighing the day-to-day developments in politics. During the 2008 election season, Silver posted a few times daily, often more, aggregating polling results on the congressional, gubernatorial, and presidential races as well as providing commentary for any current developments. In recent months his personal posting rate has fallen to several updates per week, with supplemental content provided by a few other bloggers who have a similar statistical bent.

In this post of Nate Silver’s final election projections on the morning of November 4^th, he explains not just what he thinks the numbers will be, but why:

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.

Far more wonkish posts outline the exact models used, showing the probability of each state being one by each candidate. By building a foundation of rock-hard methodology, referenced in each post as the information becomes relevant, Silver maintains both a casual voice and professional reliability.

This simultaneous accessibility and credibility has brought him a vast, broad readership. He is referenced and linked to across the web, with his data analysis often considered something of a primary source. Because of his transparent calculation methods and well-documented models, Silver can defend his assumptions against other bloggers who, quite often, take issue with certain posts. He truly brings something new to the table, even though his work is based upon widely available data.

Besides election analysis, Silver, who leans left, has been keeping tabs on Obama's campaign promises as well as the ongoing health care debate. He still maintains a monthly list of which states are most likely to have a senate seat switch parties in the upcoming midterm elections, but he has certainly turned his eye to the ongoing policy battles with critical analysis of other bloggers' assertions as well as generating his own thoughtful graphics and theses.

In this gaping hole between election seasons, filled by the heated back-and-forth on health care, Silver’s mathematical commentary is appreciated in a world of fiery misinformation and partisan attacks. His years of experience making a living off his statistical expertise show through in each post, compensating for minor details that others often overlook, paying off in consistency and credibility.

My blog, obviously, won’t have the statistical clout. I’m inspired, though, by his impartial data analysis used to bolster any ideological arguments made. Rational analysis of research to a logical conclusion is exactly what I’d like to shoot for.